Fall Sulfur Market Update
As we approach our typically busy Fall Fertilizer season, current global events continue to cause concern for growers and fertilizer retailers. It appears that the ag industry and farmers may be in for another rocky couple of months due to events beyond our control.
Since our last market update in April of 2026 (where the April sulfur export price was $773 USD/tonne), the August export price has risen to $1,200 USD/tonne. This is a 341% increase from the same time in 2025. The chart below reflects the price of molten sulfur, which is the key ingredient in our degradable sulfur fertilizers.
Increased Pressure on Sulfur Commodities
The primary driver of high sulfur costs continues to be the war in Iran, which still has not been settled and does not appear to be much closer to resolution than our last post in April.
Over the past several months, Ukrainian drones have successfully disabled Russian refineries (which are a significant source of sulfur). According to an August 3rd analysis by AgBull Trading, an estimated 42.7% of Russian refining capacity was offline in early July.
Making a bad situation worse, companies linked to the Chinese Communist Party have been accused of manipulating the commodity market by American lawmakers, as recently reported in Green Markets, a Bloomberg publication that writes on fertilizer pricing.* Chinese interests are charged with unfairly competing with farmers by buying American-produced sulfur at elevated levels while banning its own export of sulfuric acid. This is putting greater pressure on domestic supplies and the North American farmers who rely on fertilizers made with sulfur and sulfuric acid.
Implications for Farmers and Manufacturers
Fertilizer manufacturers are caught in the same position as farmers and farm supply retailers. The rising costs of fertilizer have eroded any potential profit margins across the board.
At Keg River, we are doing everything in our power to find ways to remain competitive – while refusing to make decisions that impact the quality of our products. We continue to do our best to absorb costs instead of passing them on to our customers.
No Immediate Relief Expected
Despite our best hopes that prices would come down in time for fall, that has not happened.
The situation is not expected to change in the months ahead, as it appears unlikely that there will be any price correction on sulfur in the near future.
Marina Simonova, Head of Fertilizer Analytics & Consulting at Argus predicts continuing uncertainty, which makes it hard for farmers and fertilizer retailers to know what to do. She observes that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is impacting availability and affordability. Simonova predicts that even if the conflict in the Strait ended tomorrow, it would take three to six months to resume the flow of commodities from the region.
“Concerns for us are now shifting even to the next season (in) 2027, when you think about this fertilizer availability and affordability.”
Our Advice Regarding Fall Fertilizer Purchases
Keg River Chemical is advising our farm supply retailers to only purchase what you will need for the fall 2026 season. Signs seem to indicate that prices can’t go much higher, so there doesn’t appear to be a strong argument to lock in.
For farmers, we recommend doing what is best for your crops and your bottom line – and carefully consider any trade-offs concerning fertilizer, yield and crop quality before making any decisions. As always, we suggest following the advice of a trusted agronomist.
If your fields have a known deficiency, a fall application of degradable bentonite sulfur still provides the lowest cost and greatest return on investment compared to other sulfur fertilizers.
In this time of uncertainty, we continue to stand side-by-side with our customers and provide whatever support we can. May there be some relief on the horizon to help lower costs for our consumers and the dedicated farmers and agri-businesses tasked with putting food on the shelves.
In our next post, we will explain how the commodity market for sulfur pricing works in North America, and how recent developments are impacting Canadian and west coast fertilizer manufactures to a greater degree than those in the eastern states and American Midwest.
Daryl Schuster
President
Keg River Chemical Corp.
* “Lawmakers Address China Fert Manipulation.” Green Markets (August 28, 2026), 24.